Monthly Archives: December 2011

Wish list for Santa Wen

Ahead of Wen Jiabao’s upcoming visit to Kathmandu – the first time a Chinese premier ever visits the country – Milan Mani Sharma (República) takes stock of the what Nepal’s government has put on its wish list:

Nepal is seeking a credit line of US$ 5 billion (about Rs 400 billion) from the northern neighbor for implementing large scale infrastructure projects, mainly in hydropower, when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visits Nepal. The projects for which the government is hoping for Chinese assistance are Pokhara International Airport, West Seti Hydropower Project (750 MW), Budi Gandaki Hydropower Project (600 MW) and Nalshyagugad Hydropower Project (400 MW).

Three dams and an airport is already not bad. But it does not stop there:

Apart from these, the government is also going to request China to help develop either an underground (metro) train in Kathmandu Valley or a railway line linking Kerung-Rasuwa with Lumbini. [...] Likewise, the government is also wants China to help Nepal develop a cross-border (open track, blacktop) road network along the Simikot-Hilsa (85 km), Jomsom-Korala (80 km) and Khandbari-Kimanthanka (80 km) sectors to facilitate movement of goods and people.

Translation: We have played by the book and have not tolerated Tibetan dissent on our territory. Now it is time for that reward.

If all these wishes were granted, Nepal would over night become one of the major recipients of Chinese investment-cum-development aid.

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Peter Lee on the Mytsone dam and Myanmar’s China ties

Most commentators have portrayed the decision by Myanmar’s regime to halt construction at the Chinese-built Myitsone dam and Hillary Clinton’s recent Burma visit last week as indications of a westward tilt of president Thein Sein government.

In his article for Asia Times Online Peter Lee offers a somewhat different perspective:

It is remarkable that international discussions of the Myitsone fracas virtually ignore the key political factor in the situation: the threat the project in particular – and central government-directed economic development in general – poses to the political future of the Kachin Independence Organization or KIO.

Lee argues that this political aspect is crucial for understanding local resistance against the project – even more than the potential environmental damage or the number of people that would need to be resettled (a mere 2000, according to plans). And precisely because the Kachin question is at the core of the problem, the current moratorium on the dam may not be the end of the project.

Renegotiating the Myitsone agreement to placate domestic and foreign critics might be on the agenda; but the hydropower project overall makes too much economic and political sense for the impoverished country of Myanmar to cancel it lightly. [...]

After all, the one ally that the government and army can rely on in their attempts to pacify Kachin is certainly not the Myanmar democratic movement; international NGOs; the United States; nor the other politicians and pundits who have exulted in the halt of Myitsone – it is China.

 

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Bertil Lintner series in Asian Times

Asian Times published a series of four articles on the Sino-Burmese borderlands by Bertil Lintner. Lintner traces the shifts in Burma’s military junta’s China policy, puts the recent decision to shelf the Mysore dam project in a geopolitical perspective, investigates the the ties between India and Burma, looks in to the role of the US, and comments on the most recent developments in the ongoing conflict between the Kachin Army and the Burmese military. Good read.

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“The Art of Neighbouring” – participants selected

We have now selected the papers for our 2-day thematic workshop “The Art of Neighbouring” that will take place next March at the Asia Research Institute in Singapore. A preliminary programm will be published early next year.

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New Bridges

Up to now, there is only one motorable through road that links the PRC with Nepal – the “Friendship Bridge” over the Sindupalchok between Khasa and Dram joins Nepal’s and Tibet’s road systems and makes the friendship highway the most important formal trading route across the Sino-Nepalese border. The other major roads that lead form Tibet into Nepal – one through Mustang, one from Kyirong through Rasuwaghadi, and one from Purang through Hilsa – lack motorable bridges. However, according to The Kathmandu Post, this situation is about to change:

Nepal and China have agreed to construct another “friendship bridge” in Rasuwagadhi on the Nepal-China border. [...] “The 100-meter long bridge will be constructed over the Trishuli river with Rs 100 million Chinese contribution,” Tulsi Prasad Sitaula, secretary at Ministry of Physical Planning and Works, told the Post. The Chinese have laid the foundation of the structure on their side, he said.

Nepal will construct a bridge in Hilsa, Humla district, a busy entry point on the Nepal-China border, on its own. This bridge, however, will not be a friendship one as both its pillars are located on the Nepal side.

“I laid the foundation of the bridge in Hilsa, which is 55 meters long and will cost Rs 60 million, three months ago,” said Sitaula. This bridge will link Nepal with a blacktopped highway in Tibet, he added.

I wonder whether these bridges will be used to “formalise” the bustling and highly informal trade that along these trade routes. If so, my guess would be that the informal trade will simply shift to other, more remote trade routes, such as the one from Manasarowas across the Lalung to Limi in north western Nepal or the already very important border crossing at Kimathanka in the upper Arun valley.

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PLA road construction workers?

Colonel Hariharan, a retired Indian military intelligence specialist, wrote a piece for Eurasia Review on China’s impact on India-Nepal relations. It is, as one could expect, a very Indian and very strategic perspective. But then, between the lines, he mentions this:

Read in the light of escalating strategic collaboration between China and Pakistan including the involvement of PLA troops in the construction of strategic road links in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

People familiar with the region told me that they think it is just a rumour and they had not seen any PLA troops themselves. It is not uncommon to see Chinese road workers wearing pieces of military clothing. Still, if this is just a rumour, then it is a very persistent one. I have been hearing this for quite some time now and would be very interested to find out more about it.

 

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