Posts by Martin Saxer

Mules and Roads

By Martin Saxer | May 5, 2012

Between all the important topics that fill the front pages of Nepal’s press – questions of federalism and ethnicity, the upcoming deadline for the Constitutional Assembly to finally agree on a constitution – this little note by Bipin Chand Agarwal (The Times of India) caught my eyes.

Donkeys, mules cross border, find new destination in Nepal, China: The demand of donkeys and mules has gone up in Nepal and China. These animals are the good mode of transport even in the adverse weather on the hills of these countries, they are also being imported from Nepal for past one year, importers of Nepal are sending them to China.

Talking to Nepali traders the author learnt that about 90% of these mules were exported to China where the price for mules allegedly quadrupled.

Against the background of the fervent construction of roads in the Himalayas, the surge in demand for mules may seem strange. But the roads bring more goods and these goods still need to be carried across passes where the roads have not yet reached. In this sense, it may well be that more roads mean more mules – at least for the time being.

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Missiles, Defectors, and Cheap Labour

By Martin Saxer | May 3, 2012

Since North Korea’s failed missile test earlier this month and China’s decision to stop sending North Korean defectors back, many observers have tried to make sense of these current developments.

Channel NewsAsia sees a direct link between the two stories:

China has stopped sending fleeing North Koreans back across the border, in retaliation for Pyongyang failing to consult its ally over last week’s rocket launch, a Japanese report said Wednesday.

The Yomiuri Shimbun quoted two Chinese officials as saying the long-standing policy of swiftly returning any North Korean who made it across the border and into China — despite the punishment they face — had been put on hold.

Beijing based The Economic Observer published a report by Chen Yong that highlight economic aspects:

The textile industry in Pyongyang and other cities grew substantially after South and North Korea held a joint summit in June 2000 and trade restrictions were loosened, said an executive from a Dandong trading company.

However that commerce dried up after the sinking a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March 2010 and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in November that year.

Since then many North Korean workers have been made redundant, and the textile firms that employed them have been trying to export workers to China, with the tacit consent of their government.

Finally, Victor Cha (Huffington Post) searches for the deeper reasons for China’s North Korea policy:

In terms of strategy, the policymakers in Beijing do not see a tough line, which could lead ultimately to a North Korean collapse, as being in China’s strategic interests. This is because the decision makers on North Korea are not in the foreign ministry in China, they are in the party and in the military. And for both groups, a collapse of North Korea would leave a united Korea, that is a military ally of the United States, directly on its border. Such an outcome would only reinforce in Chinese minds an important lesson of history – instability on the Korean peninsula has never redounded to Chinese interests.

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Mongolian Mines and Investors

By Martin Saxer | April 30, 2012

After much to and fro over the mining concesssion for Mongolia’s Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit, it may well be that none on the international bidders may success. Terence Edvards for Reuters:

Speaking at a regular meeting of leaders from Mongolia’s private sector on Monday, Graeme Hancock, the chief operating officer of Erdenes-Tavan Tolgoi, suggested that the Mongolian government would not be able to appease the diverse foreign investors hoping to invest in the project.

“In my view, this is a very difficult group to put together into a consortium,” said Hancock. “We’ve got a pretty good chance it will never happen.”

If that were the case, Erdenes-TT was likely to reassume control of the property and lead the western block of the project itself, he said.

For an anthropological view of Mongolian mines and geopolitics, listen to the keynote Uradyn Bulag delivered last month at our conference “The Art of Neighbouring”.

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Copper, Gold, and Water

By Martin Saxer | April 19, 2012

Josh Tapper (The Star) reports on the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mines in Mongolia. Oyu Tolgoi, he writes,

is expected to balloon the Central Asian country’s GDP — an estimated $13.28 billion in 2011 — by more than 30 per cent when it starts full production later this year.

But the economic boon is also, for some, an environmental nightmare as the project will allegedly soak up valuable water resources in the already-arid Gobi. While reports vary, the mine plans to use up to 920 litres of water per second.

This is the Gobi Desert and water is scarce. Yet, Rio Tinto – the majority owner of Ivanhoe who has a 66% stake in the mines – says that there is nothing to worry about. The water used will be taken from a non-replenishable groundwater source, which would only be depleted by 20% over the course of 40 years.

This would create surplus reserves for the local population, a company spokesperson said. The company contends that by using Gunii Hooloi, it will not have to deplete limited surface water reserves used by herders.

Things in Mongolia happen at such a mind-blowing speed that making sense of such claims is very difficult. For sure, this is an issue to keep an eye on.

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Afghan mines and railways

By Martin Saxer | April 12, 2012

Quil Lawrence (NPR) reflects on the future of mining in Afghanistan. In 2007, state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) won a concession to mine copper in Aynak:

The Afghan government has relocated residents from Ainak to make way for the development of the mine. And once again there is the promise of jobs.
But five years after MCC won the contract, there is no sign of the railroad the company pledged to build to get the copper out.
“It will obviously be built before 2014, because they have to start commercial production somewhere in 2014,” says Tamim Asey, director of public affairs for the Afghan ministry of mines. He says that by 2014 the Chinese company will have built not one, but two railway lines, as guaranteed in the contract. But the fact is the Chinese contract has not been made public. A secret U.S. embassy cable published by WikiLeaks quotes Chinese officials as calling the promise to build railways “flexible.” Mining experts in Afghanistan are wondering what else in the contract might be flexible, says Haseeb Humayoon, a partner at QARA Consulting in Kabul.

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Returning pilgrims

By Martin Saxer | April 11, 2012

Last week, Radio Free Asia reported that a large number of the detained pilgrims who had attended the Kalachakra ceremony in Bodh Gaya (India) in January were finally released after two months. Around 200, however, were still in custody. Edward Wong’s piece for the New York Times last Sunday sums up the story quite well.

I never read anything official from the Chinese government on the affair. But Wong found a commentary by Xiao Jie (China Tibetology Research Center in Bejing) which gives us some indication of how the Party sees the event. This year’s Kalachakra

… was not a political gathering, it was a political show staged by the Dalai Lama and his clique in the name of Tibetan Buddhism.

He added: “The assembly was filled with sermons instigating hatred, terror and extremism, and the self-proclaimed ‘government-in-exile of Tibet’ irresponsibly declared that it admired the spirit of the Tibetan people who committed suicide by self-immolation.”

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